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Forex Analysis

04/10/2015 07:13:05

EUR/USD pressured one more time: is the problem Greece alone?

Be prepared for a move back towards the March lows at 1.0460

Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC markets noted that “With the problems in Greece continuing to act as a running sore it is becoming increasingly apparent, despite yesterday’s latest repayment to the IMF, and policymakers best attempts to persuade us to the contrary, that the gap between what Greece’s creditors want, and what the Greek government is able to deliver, could well be too large a gap to bridge, within the six day deadline set by the EWG earlier this week. It could well end up being a long Easter weekend in Greece, as officials look to come up with a deal in time for the finance ministers meeting on April 24th.”

“The ECB once again raised its ELA facility yesterday by another €1.2bn to just over €73bn, as capital continues to leak out of Greek banks, ahead of another key week next week, when the Greek government will need to roll over €2.4bn worth of 3 and 6 month T-bills, as well as paying out over €1.5bn worth in social security payment.”

As for the EUR/USD the analyst noted that “yesterday’s unexpected break below last week’s low at 1.0710 suggests that we could be set for a move back towards the March lows at 1.0460, with interim support at 1.0600. Any rebound needs to get back above 1.0760 to suggest a return towards 1.0900”.


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