We start the week with European data. The EUR is already under renewed pressure, with the EURUSD back to recent range lows, analysts at Lloyds Bank alerted.
More relevant comments by Lloyds Bank experts:
A big week ahead, with six central banks having policy meetings, as well as a plethora of data, culminating with the US Payroll numbers on Friday. We feel the USD and US rates markets tipped their hand somewhat last week, seeing the USD rally strongly against a number of its trading partners into the weekend, supported by higher yields across the curve in the US. As such and despite Fed Chair Yellen’s attempt to stop the market getting overly excited at this stage, moderate to strong data will be latched onto and potentially push the USD to new highs against a number of markets. Weaker data will likely have, at this stage, a more muted reaction as the market will use pullbacks to buy the USD.
Weaker than expected data is likely to see a test of important support in the 1.11-1.10 region, while 1.1285-1.1315 is the main resistance we need to rally back through to negate the immediate bear bias and commit us back to a range. We are watching the UK data closely too as EURGBP has reached a significant long term support zone around .7250 and GBPUSD while under the 1.5550/75 area of resistance has a bearish set-up for a move towards 1.52-1.51. 1.5355-30 is pivot support ahead of that, with a move back through 1.5550/75 negating the bear bias and opening 1.5780/1.5800 key trend resistance.
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